Quick answer: Expected value in a prize competition is the average return per entry over a very large number of repeats: a 1 in 10,000 chance of a £1,000 prize is worth 10p per entry (our own calculation, illustrative). Most paid games price entry above that average, and that is normal for entertainment.
Key takeaways
- Expected value multiplies each prize by its chance of being won, then adds the results: the average return per entry (our own calculation, illustrative).
- Net expected result subtracts the entry price, and it is negative in most paid games by design, because prizes are funded from the money staked.
- Expected value cannot predict a single entry and cannot price fun: it shows the cost of the entertainment, which is personal.
Every MrRaffle game shows its prize list, its entry count and what prizes are left. New players can claim free tickets to look around first, starting on the instant win games page.
What is expected value in a prize competition?
Expected value is the average result of an entry if the same entry could be repeated a very large number of times. It is calculated by multiplying each possible prize by the chance of winning it, then adding those figures together (our own calculation, illustrative).
A prize competition in the UK fixes its prizes in advance and runs under published terms, with a free entry route on paid chance draws. Expected value turns that prize list into a single number you can compare across games.
The number comes in two versions: gross, what the prizes are worth per entry, and net, after subtracting the price of an entry. Neither predicts a session: a game can deliver a top prize on your first entry, or pay nothing for a hundred entries in a row.
How do you calculate expected value?
Multiply each prize by the chance of winning it, add the results, and compare the total with the cost of entry. In an illustrative game with 5,000 entries and one £2,500 prize, the prize is worth 50p per entry (our own calculation, illustrative).
The method, step by step:
- List the prizes. Write down every tier and its value, not just the headline prize.
- Work out the chance of each prize per entry. In a fixed pool game, divide the number of that prize by the entries sold.
- Multiply and add. Prize value times chance, for every tier, then add the results. That is the expected value per entry.
- Compare with the price. Expected value minus entry price is the net expected result, negative when the average entry returns less than it costs.
A worked example, our own illustration rather than any real game's maths (our own calculation, illustrative):
| Prize tier | Number of prizes | Chance per entry | Value per entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| £2,500 | 1 | 1 in 5,000 | 50p |
| £100 | 10 | 10 in 5,000 | 20p |
| £20 | 50 | 50 in 5,000 | 20p |
| Total | 90p |
With a £1 entry, the expected value is 90p and the net expected result is minus 10p per entry (our own calculation, illustrative). A free postal route applies the same expected value with no entry cost, though time and effort are real costs.
One note: a prize list without an entry count is half a calculation. Competition prizes in the UK are not taxed as income, so the values above are what reaches the winner.
Does negative expected value mean you should never play?
No. Negative expected value is the normal price of paid entertainment, and most paid games, from lotteries to prize competitions, work that way. What matters is not the average result but whether the spend fits your budget and buys enjoyment.
A cinema ticket returns nothing in cash; the return is the evening out. A paid competition entry works the same way: the prize fund comes out of what players pay in, minus the operator's costs and margin. A game that paid out more than it took in could not run for long.
That does not make every spend sensible. Two habits keep the maths honest:
- Set the budget before you play. Decide the monthly entertainment amount and treat it as money spent, not an investment to recover.
- Watch for chasing. Spending more to win back a loss is the warning sign. If that feels familiar, take a break.
This article is general information, not financial advice.
How do competitions compare with the lottery on expected value?
Both usually price entry above the expected return, and the maths works the same way: prizes are funded from the money staked. The differences show up in the shape of the game, not in whether the average entry is profitable.
| Fixed pool competition (illustrative) | Lottery style draw (illustrative) | |
|---|---|---|
| Prize fund | Fixed and published before the game opens | Set per draw, with rollovers shared |
| Prize shape | Tiers with a top prize set by the pool | Many tiers with a large headline prize |
| Chance per entry | Entries against prizes, visible while the game runs | Published odds per tier, fixed per line |
| Expected value direction | Below the entry price in our worked example | Below the entry price, funded from stakes |
The structural point matters more than any single figure: in both formats, players' money funds the prizes, so the average return per pound tends to sit below the price paid (illustrative), and rollovers or shared jackpots can move a lottery's figure around.
For the full comparison, competition odds versus lottery odds covers both formats, and odds of winning the lottery in the UK covers the lottery side.
Put the method on something concrete: instant win games publish the prize table and entry count, so you can run the calculation first, and new players can claim free tickets to try the format at no cost.
What is the entertainment factor worth?
That is personal, and no calculator can price it. Treat it as the cost of a leisure activity: compare the spend with what else that money buys in enjoyment, set a limit in advance, and never treat the gap between price and expected value as a loss to win back.
Numbers can frame the decision, but they cannot make it:
- Comparisons are personal. A night at the cinema, a takeaway and a competition entry all trade money for an experience, and only you can say which was worth it.
- The maths does not change with feelings. Enjoying a game does not improve its expected value, and a bad run does not change the next entry.
- Small and regular beats large and impulsive. A monthly budget decided in advance is easier to live with than decisions made in the moment.
If the spend starts to matter, or play stops being fun, take a break.
Whatever the maths says, set the budget first: free daily games are a no-cost way to see a game in action, and how it works explains the entry process end to end.
How do you use expected value to choose between games?
Compare like with like: expected value per pound staked, the shape of the prizes, and what is left in the pool. A game with better numbers per pound is better priced on average, and a game that publishes its odds is easier to judge.
The method in practice:
- Convert to value per pound. Divide expected value by the entry price, so games at different prices sit on one scale (our own calculation, illustrative).
- Compare prize shapes and what remains. One headline prize and fifty small prizes are different products, and fixed pool games show what is left.
- Price a realistic session. Entry price times the plays you might have is the number to budget, not the price of one entry.
- Use the free routes. A postal entry costs a stamp and counts the same, the cheapest way to judge whether a game is for you.
One habit ties it together: decide with the numbers you can see and the money you can afford. Our guide to low odds competitions covers formats where per entry chances tend to be shorter.
Frequently asked questions
Are prize competitions worth it?
On the maths alone, most paid competitions have a negative expected value, which is normal for paid entertainment. Worth combines price, odds, prize shapes and enjoyment, judged against your budget.
What is a good expected value for a competition?
There is no universal threshold, and positive expected value in a paid game is unusual. Compare games on value per pound staked, then weigh the figure against the prize shape and how much you enjoy the format.
Should expected value include the cost of entry?
Work out both figures and be clear which one a comparison uses. Gross expected value is what the prizes are worth per entry; net expected result subtracts the entry price. The net figure is the one for a budget.
Can expected value tell you that you will win?
No. Expected value is a long-run average, not a prediction. Any single entry can win the top prize or return nothing, and one session can land far from the average.
Where can you find the numbers to work out expected value?
From the prize list, the entry count and the price per entry. On MrRaffle, every game page shows its prizes and what is left, and the terms set the price and rules; a free postal route gives the same chances without an entry fee.
Sources
- MrRaffle Instant Wins, accessed 6 October 2026
- MrRaffle Competition Terms and Conditions, accessed 6 October 2026
- Gambling Act 2005, section 14, legislation.gov.uk, accessed 6 October 2026
- Promotional marketing: Free entry routes, ASA and CAP, accessed 6 October 2026
- Income Tax: introduction, GOV.UK, accessed 6 October 2026
Play responsibly
MrRaffle is for UK residents aged 18 and over. Only play with money you can afford to spend, set a budget before you start, and take a break if it stops being fun.
See the maths for yourself: instant win games show every prize and what is left, low odds competitions covers formats with shorter per entry chances, and new players can claim free tickets to start without spending.
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