Quick answer: On 24 September 2026, the median MrRaffle instant win game had top-prize odds of 1 in 1,000,000, against 1 in 8.1 million (Thunderball) to 1 in 139.8 million (EuroMillions) for National Lottery draw games. The trade-off is prize size: our median top prize was £2,500, while the smallest lottery top prize here is Thunderball's £500,000.
Key takeaways
- Top prize vs top prize: 1 in 1,000,000 for the median live MrRaffle game, against 1 in 8,060,598 to 1 in 139,838,160 for National Lottery draw games, which offer far bigger prizes.
- Any prize vs any prize: the median MrRaffle game paid some prize on 1 in 3.7 tickets, but that count includes site credit, free tickets and jackpot tickets. Lottery any-prize odds ran from 1 in 4.9 to 1 in 13.
- Cash only: a median 1 in 582 MrRaffle tickets won cash, far rarer than a lottery's any-prize win, though every MrRaffle cash prize was worth at least ten times its ticket price.
Every MrRaffle game shows its full prize list and how many of each prize are left before you play, and new players can claim free tickets to see how it works.
What did we find in the MrRaffle catalogue?
On 24 September 2026 we pulled every live instant win game from MrRaffle's public catalogue: 52 games across 13 game types. The median ticket cost 40p, the median game held 1,000,000 tickets, the median top prize was £2,500 at 1 in 1,000,000, and the median odds of winning any prize were 1 in 3.7.
The games ranged from scratch cards and loot boxes to plinko, slots, coinflip, wheel spins and card games. Each has a fixed number of tickets and a fixed prize list set before it opens, so exact odds can be calculated for every prize.
| Measure (MrRaffle, 24 September 2026) | Range | Median |
|---|---|---|
| Live games | 52 | n/a |
| Game types with live games | 13 of 18 | n/a |
| Ticket price | 5p to £1.50 | 40p |
| Tickets per game | 40,000 to 10,000,000 | 1,000,000 |
| Top prize value (a) | £10 to £95,000 | £2,500 |
| Top-prize odds per ticket (a) | 1 in 105 to 1 in 10,000,000 | 1 in 1,000,000 |
| Odds of any prize per ticket (b) | 1 in 1 to 1 in 421 | 1 in 3.7 |
| Odds of a cash prize per ticket (c) | 1 in 75 to 1 in 43,478 | 1 in 582 |
(a) The 49 games whose top prize is cash or a physical item. Three card-style games offer only site credit and are left out of the top-prize rows. (b) All 52 games. "Any prize" includes cash, physical items, site credit, free tickets and jackpot tickets. In four plinko-style games the ball always lands in a paying slot, usually a small site credit, sometimes worth less than the ticket. (c) The 49 games that offer cash prizes.
Put another way, the median game paid some prize on about 27 tickets in 100, and cash on fewer than 2 in 1,000.
How do competition odds compare with lottery odds?
Compared like for like, the median MrRaffle top prize came up once per 1,000,000 tickets, while National Lottery draw game top prizes come up once per 8.1 million to 139.8 million entries. Any-prize odds are much closer: 1 in 3.7 for the median MrRaffle game against 1 in 4.9 to 1 in 13 for the lottery games.
The table compares top prize with top prize and any prize with any prize. Lottery figures come from each game's official procedures; MrRaffle figures are medians of the 24 September 2026 snapshot.
| Game | Price per play | Top prize | Top-prize odds | Any-prize odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MrRaffle instant wins (median) | 40p | £2,500 | 1 in 1,000,000 | 1 in 3.7 (includes credit, free tickets and jackpot tickets) |
| MrRaffle instant wins, cash only (median) | 40p | n/a | n/a | 1 in 582 |
| Thunderball | £1 | £500,000 | 1 in 8,060,598 | 1 in 13 |
| Set For Life | £1.50 | £10,000 a month for 30 years | 1 in 15,339,390 | 1 in 12.4 |
| Lotto | £2 | Jackpot (varies with sales and rollovers) | 1 in 22,528,738 | 1 in 4.9 |
| EuroMillions | £2.50 | Jackpot (varies and rolls over) | 1 in 139,838,160 | 1 in 13 |
Lotto's odds reflect its two-round format, where each £2 entry is checked against two sets of numbers (procedures effective 7 June 2026). EuroMillions' £2.50 includes the bundled UK Millionaire Maker (76p); its 1 in 13 covers the main game only. For more on each game, see the odds of winning the lottery in the UK and which UK lottery has the best odds.
Are competitions better odds than the lottery?
For the top prize, per ticket, the median MrRaffle game in our snapshot had shorter odds than every National Lottery draw game we compared. That does not make it the better deal. The prizes are far smaller, most any-prize wins are site credit or jackpot tickets rather than cash, and a lottery ticket pays some cash far more often.
Three lenses help:
- Top prize. Shorter odds on our side, much bigger prizes on theirs. Thunderball's £500,000 is 200 times our median top prize of £2,500, and its odds are about 8 times longer.
- Any prize. Close. Our median of 1 in 3.7 sits near Lotto's 1 in 4.9, but the prizes are different in kind: every lottery prize is cash, while many of ours are credit to play again or tickets into a jackpot draw.
- Cash. The lottery wins clearly. A cash prize on the median MrRaffle game came up on 1 in 582 tickets, against 1 in 13 or better for any lottery prize. The difference is that the smallest lottery prizes are small (£1 on Lotto), while every MrRaffle cash prize in the snapshot was at least ten times its ticket price.
Odds are also per ticket, and prices differ: a median of 40p against £1 to £2.50. A life-changing sum at very long odds is a different product from a smaller prize at shorter odds. Neither is a way to make money, and both belong in a fun budget.
Why are lottery top prizes so much bigger?
Lottery top prizes are bigger because they are funded by national ticket sales across many draws, and jackpots roll over when nobody wins. A MrRaffle instant win game has a fixed pool of tickets, so its whole prize list has to fit inside that one pool.
The fixed pool shapes everything else. Pool size and ticket price together set how much prize money a game can carry, and the top prize has to be rare enough to fit. That is why the longest top-prize odds in the snapshot, 1 in 10,000,000, belonged to the largest pool. Our game-design team explains the process in how we design a prize table.
What counts as a "prize" in these numbers?
In the MrRaffle "any prize" figure, a prize is anything on a game's prize table: cash, a physical item, site credit, free tickets on another game, or a bundle of jackpot tickets. Only cash counts in the cash figure. Lottery prizes are all cash, but some are smaller than the ticket price.
| Prize type | What it is | Counted in "any prize" | Counted in "cash" |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | Money you can withdraw after identity checks | Yes | Yes |
| Physical item | A product such as a phone, a watch or a car | Yes | No |
| Site credit | Balance to play other games | Yes | No |
| Free tickets | Free plays on another game | Yes | No |
| Jackpot tickets | Entries into the Daily, Weekly or Monthly jackpot draw | Yes | No |
The lottery has small prizes too: Lotto pays £1 for matching two numbers on a £2 entry, Thunderball £3 for matching the Thunderball on £1, and Set For Life £5 for matching two numbers on £1.50. So both "any prize" figures include some wins worth less than a ticket, which is why we show cash separately. Jackpot tickets are explained in MrRaffle jackpots explained.
Why don't fixed ticket pools behave like lottery draws?
A lottery draw starts fresh every time: the odds of the jackpot are the same on Saturday as they were on Wednesday. A fixed ticket pool works more like a raffle drum. As tickets are sold, both the tickets and the prizes get used up, so the live odds drift, and a top prize can already be gone.
The "1 in X" figures in this study describe each game's full prize table as designed, not what was left on the day. That is the fair way to compare a whole game with a whole lottery draw, but it is not your chance on the next ticket.
So check two things before you play: how many of each prize there are, and how many are left. Every live instant win game shows both. The Daily, Weekly and Monthly jackpot draws are different again: their odds depend on how many tickets are in each round, so they are not part of this study.
Methodology: how did we get these numbers?
We read every live game from MrRaffle's public catalogue on 24 September 2026 at 15:32 UK time, calculated each game's odds from its full prize table, then took the median across games. Lottery odds come from the National Lottery's official game procedures. We publish only aggregated figures, never individual games or sales.
- Date and source. 24 September 2026, 14:32 UTC, from the public endpoint
GET https://mrraffle.com/api/v1/instant-games/catalog/{gameType}?limit=100for all 18 game types. Thirteen had live games, 52 in total. A re-run eight minutes later matched exactly. - Odds. For each prize, odds equal the number of tickets in the game divided by the number of tickets carrying that prize. We used the full prize table as designed, not the counts remaining on the day.
- Top prize. The single highest-value prize: cash, an item at its listed value, or site credit. Jackpot tickets and free tickets never count as a top prize. The three card-style games whose top prize is site credit are excluded from the top-prize rows.
- Any prize. The number of tickets divided by the total of all prize tickets, whatever the prize type.
- Cash prize. Cash prizes only. Three of the 52 games have no cash prizes, so the cash figures cover 49 games.
- Medians. Each game counts once, whatever its size or popularity, so a few extreme pools cannot pull the figure around.
- Exclusions. The Daily, Weekly and Monthly jackpot draws, free daily games, and any game not live at the time. On the lottery side we used the four main draw games only, leaving out UK Millionaire Maker, Lotto raffles, Hotpicks and promotional draws.
- Not published. Game names, sales figures and remaining prize counts.
- Limitations. This is a snapshot. Our games rotate weekly, so the medians will move. Odds here are per ticket, not per pound spent.
We have kept the script and the aggregated output on file so the figures can be reproduced.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of winning a prize competition?
It depends entirely on the competition. In our 24 September 2026 snapshot of MrRaffle instant win games, the median odds were 1 in 3.7 for any prize, 1 in 582 for a cash prize and 1 in 1,000,000 for the top prize. For a draw-style competition, your odds are your tickets divided by all tickets entered.
Which National Lottery game has the best top-prize odds?
Of the four main draw games we compared, Thunderball has the shortest top-prize odds at 1 in 8,060,598 for £500,000. Set For Life follows at 1 in 15,339,390, then Lotto at 1 in 22,528,738 and EuroMillions at 1 in 139,838,160. Figures are from each game's official procedures.
Why are lottery jackpots so much bigger than competition prizes?
Lottery jackpots are funded by national sales and roll over when nobody wins, so they can grow into millions. An instant win game has a fixed pool of tickets and a fixed prize list, so the top prize has to fit inside that pool. Bigger pools allow bigger prizes, at longer odds.
Does buying more tickets improve your odds?
More tickets raise your chance of winning something overall, but each ticket keeps its own odds, and every extra ticket costs money. No pattern, timing or system changes the odds of a single ticket. Set a budget first and treat any win as a bonus.
Will this study be updated?
This is a dated snapshot of 24 September 2026, and the figures describe the games live on that day. Our games rotate weekly and the National Lottery occasionally changes its games. If we re-run the study, we will publish the new date alongside the new figures.
Sources
- Lotto Game Procedures, The National Lottery, accessed 24 September 2026
- EuroMillions Game Procedures, The National Lottery, accessed 24 September 2026
- Set For Life Game Procedures, The National Lottery, accessed 24 September 2026
- Thunderball Game Procedures, The National Lottery, accessed 24 September 2026
- MrRaffle public instant games catalogue (all 18 game types), accessed 24 September 2026
Play responsibly
MrRaffle is for UK residents aged 18 and over. Only play with money you can afford to spend, set a budget before you start, and take a break if it stops being fun.
Want to check the numbers for yourself? Every game on our instant wins page lists each prize and how many are left. New players can claim free tickets and get a 25% deposit bonus + 10 free tickets on their first deposit (terms apply).
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