Quick answer: Each £1 Premium Bond has a 21,000 to 1 chance of winning a prize in each monthly draw, with an annual prize fund rate of 4.35% (NS&I, from the September 2026 draw). With £10,000 you have about a 38% chance of a prize in any given month. With the £50,000 maximum, it is about 91%.
Key takeaways
- The odds and the rate are variable. NS&I moved them to 21,000 to 1 and 4.35% for the September 2026 draw, from 22,000 to 1 and 3.80% in August.
- 4.35% is an average. Most holders get less, because a fifth of the prize fund pays for rare big prizes: by our calculation the typical return on £10,000 is about 3.5% a year.
- Whether Bonds beat a savings account depends mostly on your tax position. This guide is general information, not financial advice.
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What are the odds of winning Premium Bonds?
The odds are 21,000 to 1 for every £1 Bond in each monthly draw, according to NS&I, from the September 2026 draw. Every eligible £1 Bond has the same chance, so more Bonds means more chances. The odds and the 4.35% annual prize fund rate are both variable, and NS&I can change them at any time.
Premium Bonds pay no interest. Instead, the prize fund rate sets how much goes into the monthly prize pot, and the odds set how many prizes it is split into. NS&I announced the rise on 18 August 2026, adding around 308,000 prizes to the September draw compared with August.
This is what the September 2026 draw paid out:
| Prize | Number of prizes, September 2026 |
|---|---|
| £1,000,000 | 2 |
| £100,000 | 95 |
| £50,000 | 192 |
| £25,000 | 381 |
| £10,000 | 954 |
| £5,000 | 1,909 |
| £1,000 | 19,882 |
| £500 | 59,646 |
| £100 | 2,365,010 |
| £50 | 2,365,010 |
| £25 | 1,716,787 |
| Total | 6,529,868 prizes worth £497,086,175 |
NS&I puts 80% of the prize fund into £25, £50 and £100 prizes, 10% into £500 and £1,000 prizes, and 10% into prizes from £5,000 to £1 million. So about 99 in every 100 prizes are £100 or less.
What are my chances of winning with £1,000, £10,000 or £50,000?
With £1,000 in Premium Bonds you have about a 1 in 21 chance of a prize in any given month. With £10,000 it is about 38%, and with £50,000 about 91%. These are our calculations from NS&I's 21,000 to 1 odds, assuming all your Bonds are eligible for the draw.
| Holding | Chance of a prize in a given month | Average prizes a year | Chance of no prize all year | Average winnings a year | Typical (median) winnings a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| £1,000 | 4.7% | 0.6 | 57% | £43.50 | £0 |
| £10,000 | 38% | 5.7 | 0.3% | £435 | about £350 |
| £50,000 | 91% | 28.6 | almost nil | £2,175 | about £1,900 |
Odds of winning Premium Bonds with £10,000
£10,000 is 10,000 separate £1 entries, each with a 1 in 21,000 chance. On average that is just under one prize every two months, or 5.7 a year. Most of those will be £25, £50 or £100, which is why the typical year pays about £350 rather than the £435 average.
Why the typical return is lower than 4.35%. The average includes the small chance of a £1 million or £100,000 prize. Those rare wins lift the average for everyone but land on very few people, so the middle holder earns less than the headline rate.
How we got these numbers. We treated each eligible £1 Bond as having a 1 in 21,000 chance in each draw, as NS&I states, and gave each prize a value in proportion to NS&I's September 2026 prize table. We then simulated 12 monthly draws a million times for each holding and took the average and the middle (median) result. Real results vary, and the figures change whenever NS&I changes the rate, the odds or the prize mix.
How much money do you need in Premium Bonds to win every month?
No amount makes a monthly prize certain. At £21,000 you would expect one prize a month on average, yet you would still go without a prize in about 37% of months. Even with the £50,000 maximum, you would expect roughly one month a year with no prize at all, by our calculation.
That is how random draws work: each month is a fresh draw. With £50,000, each month carries about a 9% chance of no prize, and over 12 draws those gaps add up to about one blank month a year on average. Some years will have none, some will have two or three.
How are Premium Bond prizes drawn?
By ERNIE, NS&I's Electronic Random Number Indicator Equipment. Since 2019 the fifth version, ERNIE 5, has used light to generate random numbers that are matched against eligible Bond numbers. NS&I says it produces a month's numbers in around 20 minutes, and every Bond number has a separate and equal chance.
A few rules decide which Bonds are in the draw:
- The one-month wait. Bonds must be held for a whole calendar month before they are eligible. Bonds bought at any point in November first enter the January draw.
- The £50,000 cap. Bond numbers above the £50,000 limit cannot win.
- The prize count. NS&I sets the number of prizes so that the total equals the number of eligible £1 Bonds divided by the odds. Two £1 million jackpots are paid every month.
Prizes are paid straight to your bank account, usually by the 7th working day of the month, or can be reinvested in more Bonds. Winners of £25,000 to £100,000 fill in a claim form first.
Are Premium Bonds worth it?
It depends on your tax position and how you feel about luck. This is general information, not financial advice. On average Bonds pay 4.35% tax-free, but the typical holder gets less. An easy access account such as NS&I's own Direct Saver pays a variable 3.75% gross, and that interest is taxable above your allowance.
Both products come from NS&I, so they are a fair like-for-like pair:
| Premium Bonds | NS&I Direct Saver | |
|---|---|---|
| Rate at 24 September 2026 | 4.35% prize fund rate, variable | 3.75% gross/AER, variable |
| Tax | Prizes free of Income Tax and Capital Gains Tax | Interest taxable above your Personal Savings Allowance |
| What you receive | Depends on luck | Predictable interest |
| Access | Cash in with no notice or penalty | No notice and no penalty |
| Security | 100% capital security (NS&I is backed by HM Treasury) | Same |
For context, the Bank of England's Bank Rate was 3.75% and inflation was 3.1% when we checked.
Is it worth having 50k in Premium Bonds?
For a higher rate taxpayer, the numbers often lean towards Bonds, because tax takes a big slice of ordinary interest. For a basic rate taxpayer the two come out close. Here is one year at current rates, assuming no other savings interest:
| £50,000 for one year | Premium Bonds | Direct Saver at 3.75%, after tax |
|---|---|---|
| Basic rate taxpayer (£1,000 allowance, 20%) | Typical about £1,900, average £2,175, tax-free | £1,700 |
| Higher rate taxpayer (£500 allowance, 40%) | Same | £1,325 |
| Additional rate taxpayer (no allowance, 45%) | Same | about £1,031 |
The trade-off is certainty. The Direct Saver figure is what you get if the rate holds. The Bonds figure is a middle outcome: in our simulation, about half of £50,000 holders won less than £1,900 in a year.
Can you ever lose money in Premium Bonds?
Not in pounds. NS&I says its products offer 100% capital security because it is backed by HM Treasury, and you can cash Bonds in at any time with no notice or penalty. What you can lose is spending power: prizes depend on luck, and NS&I itself warns that inflation can reduce the true value of your money over time.
With inflation at 3.1% when we checked, a holder who wins less than about £31 per £1,000 in a year falls behind rising prices. By our calculation, most people holding £1,000 win nothing at all in a typical year.
How do Premium Bonds odds compare with the lottery?
Per entry, lottery games win far more often: Lotto's any-prize odds are 1 in 4.9 a line, against 21,000 to 1 for a £1 Bond in one draw. The big difference is what happens to your money. A lottery stake is spent. A Premium Bond is kept, and goes back into the draw every month.
Like-for-like, one entry each, any prize against any prize and top prize against top prize:
| One entry | Cost | Chance of any prize | Chance of the top prize | Your money afterwards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premium Bonds, one £1 Bond in one monthly draw | £1 | 1 in 21,000 | about 1 in 68.6 billion (£1 million) | Kept |
| Thunderball, one line | £1 | 1 in 13 | 1 in 8,060,598 (£500,000) | Spent |
| Set For Life, one line | £1.50 | 1 in 12.4 | 1 in 15,339,390 (£10,000 a month for 30 years) | Spent |
| Lotto, one line | £2 | 1 in 4.9 | 1 in 22,528,738 (jackpot) | Spent |
The Premium Bonds jackpot figure is our calculation: two £1 million prizes a month drawn from about 137 billion eligible £1 Bonds (NS&I's September 2026 prize count multiplied by the 21,000 odds). Even with the full £50,000, that works out at roughly a 1 in 114,000 chance of a jackpot in a year.
For a ranking of every UK draw, see which lottery has the best odds, and for every National Lottery game in one place, our guide to the odds of winning the lottery in the UK. If you want the top-prize details for one game, read Set For Life odds.
Frequently asked questions
How often are Premium Bonds drawn?
Once a month. NS&I runs one prize draw a month and you can check results with its prize checker app or website using your holder's number. New Bonds must be held for a whole calendar month before they join a draw, so Bonds bought in November first enter the January draw.
What is the most you can hold in Premium Bonds?
£50,000 per person, and the minimum purchase is £25. Anyone aged 16 or over with a UK bank account can buy them, and a parent or guardian can hold them for a child under 16. Any Bond numbers above the £50,000 limit are not eligible to win prizes.
Do old Premium Bonds have worse odds?
No. NS&I says every Bond number, whether it has 8, 9, 10 or 11 digits, has a separate and equal chance of winning. Old Bonds are not used up by past draws and new Bonds are no luckier. Each eligible £1 Bond is simply entered again every month.
Are Premium Bond prizes tax-free?
Yes. NS&I says all prizes are exempt from UK Income Tax and Capital Gains Tax. That matters most if you are a higher or additional rate taxpayer, or already use your Personal Savings Allowance. Our guide to tax on lottery and competition winnings covers the wider rules.
How many Premium Bonds prizes are there each month?
About 6.5 million. NS&I's September 2026 draw paid 6,529,868 prizes worth £497,086,175, including two £1 million jackpots. Around 99 in every 100 prizes were £25, £50 or £100, because NS&I puts 80% of the prize fund into those three values. The other 20% pays for the rarer prizes from £500 up to £1 million.
Sources
- NS&I: Premium Bonds, accessed 24 September 2026
- NS&I: How we share out Premium Bonds prizes, accessed 24 September 2026
- NS&I press release PR260818: Boost for Premium Bonds, 18 August 2026, accessed 24 September 2026
- NS&I: How Premium Bonds work (ERNIE), accessed 24 September 2026
- NS&I: Direct Saver, accessed 24 September 2026
- Bank of England: Bank Rate, accessed 24 September 2026
- GOV.UK: Tax on savings interest, accessed 24 September 2026
- GOV.UK: Income Tax rates and Personal Allowances, accessed 24 September 2026
- The National Lottery: Lotto Online Game Procedures, accessed 24 September 2026
- The National Lottery: Set For Life Online Game Procedures, accessed 24 September 2026
- The National Lottery: Thunderball Online Game Procedures, accessed 24 September 2026
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